The impact of the Russian-Ukrainian War on the food security of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Abstract

The economic and social impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war was the focus of this study, which aimed to assess its effect on the food security of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. To achieve its objectives, the study utilized published data, food security index measures, and standard economic analysis. The findings revealed that the Kingdom's food security environment index increased from 58.1% in 2012 to 69.9% in 2022, indicating moderate food security throughout this period. The index was lower than the estimated counterpart for the rest of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries but exceeded the global average (113 countries) by 12.38% in 2022. Furthermore, the study demonstrated that a 10% increase in the estimated food production index and real per capita income led to a 2.72% and 6.55% increase in the food security index, respectively. Conversely, a 10% rise in the estimated consumer price index for foodstuffs resulted in a 1.74% decrease in the food security index. Despite the challenges posed by the Russian-Ukrainian war, the food security index is projected to improve for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, expected to increase from 72.4% in 2024 to 75.6% in 2030, attributed to the country's policy of investing in agriculture abroad and focusing on local agricultural investments such as vertical expansion, protected agriculture, and agricultural practices. This strategic approach ensures high-quality produce and facilitates significant financial surpluses, enhancing the country's capacity to import goods from overseas.