A HYPOTHETICAL DESIGN TO INHIBIT COVID 19 DISEASE DISASTER BY DIAGRAMMATIC MODEL

Deepanwita  Deka; Avra Pratim  Chowdhury; Arabinda  Ghosh; Moni P  Bhuyan

doi:10.18006/2021.9(3).311.324

Authors

Deepanwita Deka Department of Botany, S. B. Deorah College, Gauhati University, Guwahati, Assam, India.
Avra Pratim Chowdhury Department of Botany, Gauhati University, Assam, India.
Arabinda Ghosh Microbiology Division, Dept. of Botany, Gauhati University, Assam, India
Moni P Bhuyan SRL Diagnostic Limited, Assam, India.

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18006/2021.9(3).311.324

Keywords:

Disaster management, Hotspot, Lockdown, Quarantine, Vaccines

Abstract

SARS-CoV-2 is a new entity in the globe studied vigorously in the present world. The estimated populations are around 47 million people who are affected by the virus and around 300,000 (16th May 2020) deaths resulted from the outbreak. The rate might keep on increasing due to the non-availability of a proper vaccine, following proper management with epidemiological studies, and displacement of contact individuals as a source of transmission in particular viral-prone regions. CoVID 19 is on its vigorous spread leading to a global impact on lots of sectors. The outreaching impacts play a role in international politics, scientific developments, and economic crises over the world, and global relations among the countries. This model attempts to determine the possible impacts and outcomes of the Pandemic over the international level and some possible ways to handle it effectively. An unpredictable catastrophe in the present scenario of the world is following a high range of public health hazards. Analytical plotted data assembles for imposing in multidisciplinary segments to cure and control morbidity, a mortality rate of disease clusters, and hotspots zone. The contagious outbreak was reprogrammed as a pandemic from Wuhan in China through the transmissible chain of human contacts. Currently, the infective chain is spreading day by day with high morbidity in the United States, Europe, Scandinavian countries, and India. The transmissible chain of the virus needs to break until any effective medicine or vaccine is launched.

References

ICMR Advisory on Strategy for COVID-19 Testing in India (2020) Recommended by the National Task Force on COVID-19 ICMR's advisory is generic in nature and may be modified as per the discretion of the state health authorities. VI: 1-4.

Ananthanarayan R, Paniker CKJ (2013) Text Book of Microbiology, 7th edition, Orient Longman Private Ltd., Chennai, 2005.

Anderson RM, Heesterbeek H, Klinkenberg D, Hollingsworth TD (2020) How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the CoVID-19 epidemic?. The Lancet 395: 931–934. PMCID: PMC7158572DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30567-5.

Arena F, Pollini S, Rossolini GM, Margaglione M (2021) Summary of the Available Molecular Methods for Detection of SARS-CoV-2 during the Ongoing Pandemic. International Journal of Molecular Sciences 22:1298.

Bhatnagar T, Murhekar MV, Soneja M (2020) Lopinavir/ritonavir combination therapy amongst symptomatic coronavirus disease 2019 patients in India: Protocol for restricted public health emergency use. Indian Journal of Medical Research 151(23): 184-189. doi: 10.4103/ijmr. IJMR_502_20.

Bukhari Q, Jameel Y (2020) Will Coronavirus Pandemic Diminish by Summer?. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3556998 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3556998

Chen Y, Liu Q, Guo D (2020a) Emerging coronaviruses: Genome structure, replication, and pathogenesis. Journal of Medical Virology 92: 418–423. PMID:31967327PMCID:PMC7167049DOI:10.1002/

jmv.25681

Chen T, Rui J, Wang Q, Zhao Z, Cui J, Yin LA (2020b) Proposed mathematical model for simulating the phase-based transmissibility of a novel coronavirus. Infect disease poverty 9: 24. PMCID: PMC7047374DOI: 10.1186/s40249-020-00640-3

Cohen J, Normile D (2020) New SARS-like virus in China triggers an alarm. Science 367(6475):234-235. DOI: 10.1126/science. 367.6475.234

Das S (2020) The CBD Dialectic in Mental Health: Benign and Powerful? Psychiatric Services 71(1): 2-3. doi: 10.1176/appi.ps. 201900394.

Drosten C, Gnther S, Preiser W, Werf S (2003) Identification of a Novel Coronavirus in Patients with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome. New England Journal of Medicine 348: 1967–1976. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa030747.

European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (2020) Rapid increase of a SARS-CoV-2 variant with multiple spike protein mutations observed in the United Kingdom. Source: TESSy, COVID-19 national weekly data. pp: 1-13. http://covid19-country-overviews.ecdc.europa.eu/#34_United_Kingdom.

Gumel AB, Ruan S, Day T, Watmough J, Brauer F, Driessche, PV, Gabrielson D (2004) Modelling strategies for controlling sars outbreaks. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B 271:2223–2232. PMID:15539347PMCID:PMC1691853DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2004.2800.

Kermack WO, McKendrick AG (1927) A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics. The Royal Society. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.1927.0118.

Kumar S, Gosain M, Sharma H (2018) Social mixing insights from a rural population in India. PLOS ONE 13: 12. PMCID: PMC6303083 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0209039

Lauer SA, Grantz KH, Bi Q, Jones FK, et al. (2020) The Incubation Period of Coronavirus Disease: Confirmed Cases: Estimation and Application. Annals of Internal Medicine 172(9): 577-582. PMCID: PMC7081172, DOI: 10.7326/M20-0504

Linda J, Carter VL, SmootWJ, LiY, Zhou Q, Saveson JC, Sasso JM, GreggAC, Soares DJ, Beskid TR, Jervey SR, LiuC (2021) Assay Techniques and Test Development for COVID-19 Diagnosis. ACS Central Science (6):591−605

Lipkin L, Smith D (2000) Logistic Growth Model. Convergence 2020: 1-3 http://www.maa.org/publications/periodicals/loci/ modeling-a-changing-world

Roosa K, Lee Y, Luo R (2020) Short-term Forecasts of the CoVID-19 Epidemic in Guangdong and Zhejiang, China. Journal of Clinical Medicine 9(2): 596. Doi: 10.3390/jcm9020596.

Sanjuan R, Nebot MR, Chirico N, Mansky L, Belshaw R (2010) Viral Mutation Rates. Journal of Virology 84(19): 9733–9748.

Tang B, Wang X, Li Q, Bragazzi NL, Tang S (2020a) Estimation of the transmission risk of the 2019-n COVID and its implication for public health interventions. Journal of Clinical Medicine 9(2): 462. PMCID: PMC7074281DOI: 10.3390/jcm9020462.

Tang B, Bragazzi NL, Li Q, Tang S, Xiao Y, Wu J (2020b) An updated estimation of the risk of transmission of the novel coronavirus (2019-n COVID). Infect diseases model 5: 248–255. PMCID: PMC7029158DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2020.02.001.

Viboud C, Simonsen L, Chowell G (2016) A generalized-growth model to characterize the early ascending phase of infectious disease outbreaks. Epidemics 15: 27-37. DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem. 2016.01.002.

Wang Q, Zhao Z (2020) Clinical Characteristics of 138 Hospitalized Patients with 2019 Novel Coronavirus-Infected Pneumonia in Wuhan, China. The Journal of the American Medical Association 323 (11): 1061–1069.PMID:

PMCID: PMC7042881DOI: 10.1001/jama.2020.1585.

Wise J (2020) Covid-19: New coronavirus variant is identified in UK. British Medical Journal. 2020: 371. doi: https://doi.org/ 10.1136/bmj.m4857.

Wu JT, Leung K, Leung GM (2020) Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modeling study. The Lancet 395: 689–697. PMCID:PMC7159271DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30260-9.

Zhou P, Gates P (2020) A pneumonia outbreak associated with a new coronavirus of probable bat origin. Nature 579: 270–273. PMCID: PMC7095418DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2012-7.